Sector-Specific Analysis

First up, detached homes. October saw a total of 1,071 sales in this category—a solid 10% jump from last year. And, brace yourself, the benchmark price for detached homes hit $753,900. That’s an 8% rise from last October! Even though we’re seeing a tiny seasonal dip from September, it’s nothing to worry about; demand is holding strong. Higher-end inventory is growing, which gives buyers in that range some decent options. But if you’re looking at lower-priced detached homes, it’s still a seller’s market with less than two months of supply.

Next, we’ve got semi-detached homes. This segment is stable, with 190 units sold, marking a 6% bump from last October. New listings here rose by 20%, bringing inventory up to 390 units, which is starting to create some balance, particularly for those on the higher end. The benchmark price? $677,000—a solid 8% up from last year, and holding steady from September. It’s almost like the semi-detached market is saying, “Hey, we’re here, we’re consistent, and we’re a safe bet.”

Row houses tell a slightly different story. Sales were at 353 units, dipping just a bit from last year. But here’s the silver lining: inventory has nearly doubled, jumping to 784 units. So, for row houses, supply is catching up, and we’re seeing a bit of relief from the price pressures that have been building. The benchmark price sits at $456,600, up 8% from last year, with prices leveling off month-over-month. It seems seasonal factors are starting to take effect here.

And last but not least, apartment condominiums. This one’s a bit of a mixed bag. October marked the fifth month in a row of year-over-year sales decline. The culprit? Lower inventory at entry-level price points. Still, the benchmark price has climbed to $341,700, which is an 11% rise from last year. Inventory reached 1,593 units, so there’s some breathing room for higher-end buyers, but affordable options are as elusive as ever. Prices did ease a bit from September, likely thanks to seasonal trends and a fresh wave of new projects in certain areas.

Alright, we’ve covered the property types. Now let’s switch gears and talk about how things are shaping up regionally—because Calgary’s surrounding areas are seeing some interesting trends of their own.

Regional Market Insights

Airdrie is buzzing with activity. Sales are keeping up with new listings, which is helping inventory grow and taking some pressure off buyers. But, here’s the catch: most listings are priced above $600,000. So, while there’s more inventory overall, the entry-level market is still tight. Benchmark prices in Airdrie continue to climb, especially where inventory is thin at the lower price points. It’s a bit like trying to find a reasonably priced gem in a high-end boutique—if you’re shopping below $600,000, be prepared to move fast.

Next up, Cochrane. This area is seeing a delicate dance between new listings and sales, with supply starting to ease up a bit. However, inventory is still limited, and benchmark prices are on an upward trajectory, thanks to a steady demand from buyers, particularly in the lower price ranges. So, if you’re looking for something on the affordable side, Cochrane is feeling a bit of a seller’s advantage, even as higher-priced options become more available.

And then there’s Okotoks, which has its own story to tell. Sales here are on the rise, but new listings haven’t quite kept up with demand, especially in the lower-priced homes. This has led to some pretty intense competition, keeping upward pressure on prices. The limited availability in the lower and mid-price segments means that sellers are really benefiting from strong demand. All signs suggest that this competitive dynamic will hang around for a while, especially as more buyers eye Okotoks for its appealing mix of amenities and proximity to Calgary.

So, Calgary’s neighbors are feeling the ripple effects of its hot market, each in their own way. Now, with the regional scene in focus, let’s talk about what’s on the horizon as we head toward the year’s end.

Forecast

If October is any indicator, strong demand is here to stay, especially in those higher-priced segments. We’re likely to see sales continue at a steady pace, driven by inventory increases at the top end of the market. So, if you’re eyeing homes above $600,000, there’s a good chance you’ll have more choices as listings rise, and the playing field becomes a bit more balanced.

In the more affordable segments, though, it’s a different story. The supply of budget-friendly options is still stretched thin, which could put a cap on sales growth. Unless we see a significant surge in new listings at lower price points, these properties will stay in high demand and relatively short supply, keeping competition fierce.

As for prices, benchmark values are expected to stay on the high side across all segments, with maybe a slight seasonal adjustment as we move into the winter months. Detached and semi-detached homes are especially likely to see a lift in new listings, as sellers respond to the sustained price momentum. But overall, the lower-priced segments will probably stay hot, meaning prices may not budge much there.

Now, let’s talk about the broader economic influences at play. Calgary’s stable job market, coupled with interest from out-of-province buyers, is fueling demand. And we’re seeing a bit of a shift in buyer composition, with a tilt toward those higher-end properties, where supply is more balanced. On the flip side, unless there’s a surge in listings, affordable homes will continue to be snapped up quickly, tightening conditions in those segments.

Finally, what does this mean for buyers and sellers? For first-time buyers, it’s still a challenging market, especially under the $600,000 range. But for seasoned buyers and investors, the high-end segment is offering more opportunities. Sellers in the lower price brackets have the upper hand, while buyers on the higher end will likely find better-negotiated deals thanks to the increased inventory.